Is the Entertainment Fading? The Decline of Open-Play Goal Scoring

One of the biggest stories of the Premier League season so far has been the drop of scoring in open-play scenarios and the way teams have been scoring more from dead-ball situations as an alternative.

Looking at scoring methods to the first 11 games last season, we note a drop of 39 scored in open-play and 26 more from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, leading to 13 less in total.

If we look at the bigger picture, efforts on goal teams are taking have seen an incredible drop of 370 in open play than at this stage previously.

Even with the big increase in set-piece goals, we've actually seen a mere two extra attempts produced from them outside of spot-kicks, demonstrating how effective sides are at devising strategies to net from dead-ball situations.

Goal Averages Show a Story

Over 300 goals scored in the first 110 fixtures so far averages out at 2.74 goals per game, if maintained for the whole season might be the least for half a decade, since 2020-21 (2.69 average).

But just under 200 goals scored in open-play translates to 1.78 per game and is heading to be the lowest for 16 years, since 2009-10 (1.76 average).

That campaign also marks the only Premier League campaign to see goals scored at a higher rate from non-penalty set-pieces than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 per game (0.79).

Which Sides Are Most Responsible?

Regarding scoring from open play, Wolves have seen the largest decrease, scoring only four in 11 matches, 10 less than at this stage last season.

Outside of Wolverhampton, the Premier League's fall in open-play scoring is largely a trend among London clubs, with half of the capital's seven sides recording a minimum of five goals fewer from open-play than the previous year.

In fairness, that's largely down to them scoring many goals at the beginning of the previous campaign as opposed to them having difficulty to find the net in open play this season.

Conversely Man City have seen the largest rise, with almost every one of the 23 they've scored this season arriving in open play.

Set-Play Proficiency

Comparing newly promoted sides with those that were relegated they replaced. Play-off winners the Black Cats have recorded three more goals in open-play than the Saints achieved in matchday 11 leading to the drop the previous campaign.

Regarding scoring from set-pieces (excluding spot-kicks), the Gunners and the Blues have seen the largest rise, with both sides replacing the reduction of five goals that they've scored in open-play with the same number from dead-ball situations.

Man United have netted twice as many goals from set-plays as they achieved in the first 11 matches the previous campaign before the manager took charge, while Sunderland again are more successful at scoring than the club they replaced they replaced.

Manchester City seem unaware of the memo about scoring more from set-pieces, as they've scored a reduction of three than last season, similar to Forest, even if this could be because of the change in style they have tried to implement.

General Tendencies

Six clubs – Arsenal, Chelsea, Fulham, the Magpies, Spurs and the Hammers – have been this term's primary examples by recording fewer scores from open play and increased from set-plays, while City stand as the sole team to buck the trend so far by doing the exact opposite.

It will be fascinating to observe if teams carry on to depend greatly on set-plays as the season goes on or if they rediscover their general attacking flair and start scoring additional scores in open-play also.